Economics
Lower eurozone inflation fuels rate cut speculation
Some analysts expect start of easing cycle earlier in 2024
Central banks average 11 working papers over the past year
Just over a quarter of central banks run research blogs
German inflation falls to 2.3% in November
Falling energy prices lower inflation in the eurozone’s main economy
Central banks prioritise inflation dynamics research
Middle income institutions tend to have much widest research interests
Time series model is top tool for forecasting and research
Use of machine learning models for research purposes surges year on year
ECB paper analyses impact of Chinese financial shocks
“China shocks” affect global commodities and equities, but less than US equivalents, researchers find
Economic growth and inflation are most-forecast variables
Private debt, commodity prices and market interest rates rank as laggards
ECB paper studies ESG ratings’ effects on debt costs
Downgrades had only temporary effect on US firms’ bond spreads, researchers find
Japanese inflation increases to 3.3% in October
Food, energy and services inflation boost price increases
Most new economic staff hired as fresh graduates
Recruits from private sector, academia make up smaller portion of new hires
Proportion of central bank economists with PhD rises
Central banks split on funding economic staff with PhD aspirations
BIS unveils new data portal
Bank will hold training courses for journalists wishing to access statistics
Median salary of central bank economists rises as inflation bites
Income remains less aligned with GDP per capita of participating countries
Economics department staff total just over 70 on average
Average number of research economists remains smaller than policy economists
AI adoption still limited among central bank economists
High income countries report slightly higher impact but most say practical use of AI is minimal
More female Stem workers could boost Japan’s productivity – study
Tackling gender pay gaps and discrimination against female researchers could accelerate growth
Strong dollar harms EME bond market liquidity – BIS paper
Dealer intermediation vulnerable to both “original sin” and “original sin redux”
European Commission lowers 2023 GDP growth forecast
EC expects eurozone economy to expand by 0.6% this year
Bank of Israel warns government over war spending
Central bank says crisis will have long-term costs and casts doubt on funding plans
UK inflation falls more than BoE had expected
Housing prices fall year on year for first time since 2012, while energy prices also decline
US cash usage may have hit its floor, says Boston Fed
Consumers prefer credit cards, the top payment method in 2022, for online payments
US-China trade is falling, Fed researchers find
Fall driven by advanced technology trade, but other US allies are not following suit, paper finds
Crisis-stricken Israel has faith in central bank
Economists tell Central Banking the government must radically change fiscal priorities