Economics
People willing to pay more to curb business cycle – study
Survey data challenges assertion that consumers would only make minimal sacrifices
US inflation higher or more cyclical at start of year – study
Dallas Fed research says slowing inflation is more encouraging if it takes place in January
UK economy vulnerable to Trump tariffs – BoE’s Greene
MPC member says US has outsized financial impact as biggest single-country trading partner
Branching paths: the Czech National Bank’s many modelling options
Three external reviews each recommended a different combination of models. The CNB now faces tough design choices, and must also decide how to upgrade its economic research
Immigration reduces inflation in US – IMF paper
But immigrants put upward pressure on house prices, study finds
AI can solve more complex economic models – BIS paper
Neural networks help economists solve and estimate non-linear heterogeneous agent models
Inflation uncertainty spills over into US – Fed study
Lack of clarity over input costs and interest rates leads to lower levels of investment, study finds
Tighter credit and monetary policy hurts the young – ECB study
Borrowing limits push up rents but do not affect house prices, research shows
NBER paper explores sources of ‘geoeconomic power’
Authors write of “urgent need” to understand “new era of geoeconomic rivalry”
Trade wars could cost world $6.5tn by 2030 – Swift study
Fragmented financial landscape “benefits no one”, report shows
The UK is not suffering another Truss shock
The increase in gilt yields is a long way from the turmoil of 2022, writes Jagjit Chadha. But it does highlight flaws in the use of fiscal rules
Fed’s anecdotal survey correlates with economic data – research
Study says Beige Book’s “soft” data is “actually quite firm”
Bigger cities do not mean much greater growth – study
Benefits of agglomeration are “surprisingly little”, NBER paper argues
BoE’s new research agenda adds focus on balance sheet
Three-year plan responds to inflation surge, market turmoil and changed mandates
Higher tariffs would hurt US allies as well as its foes – research
However, research says country would be largely shielded from impact of geopolitical fragmentation
ECB set for 100bp of rate cuts by autumn – Greek governor
France is ‘an issue’ and Trump presidency an ‘explosive mix’, says Stournaras
Distributions allow better state-level forecasts – RBI paper
Authors find new method incorporating inflation and expectations can cut forecast errors
Forbearance does not always lead to ‘zombification’ – BoE paper
Well-designed policies can support firms through temporary periods of stress, researchers find
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – model banks analysis
Additional data breakdowns reveal patterns based on staffing and development
Demographics could trigger closures of US universities – study
Research by Philly Fed says fewer young people are enrolling, which is adding to financial pressures
IMF team builds new multi-country semi-structural model
G3MOD designed for frequent analysis by central banks of trade and financial links