Forecasting
Decision theory can guide climate modelling, Nobel laureate says
Lars Peter Hansen argues policy-makers need to pay more attention to uncertainty
RBA sets up new panel of private-sector economists
Expert panel will meet at least twice a year; move follows “embarrassing” forecasting issues
RBNZ delivers fourth straight 50bp rate hike
New Zealand’s central bank now expects rate to peak 15bp higher, at 4.1%
Long-term data can shed light on current inflation – NBER paper
Authors suggest first half of 20th century has clearer parallel to current inflation than 1970s
How central bank mistakes after 2019 led to inflation
Central banks must acknowledge their own mistakes and outline concrete steps to restore the public’s confidence in their ability to ensure price stability, write Graeme Wheeler and Bryce Wilkinson*
The case for restoring the role of monetary aggregates
Tim Congdon argues that a surge in money supply in response to Covid-19 sparked heightened inflation and central banks need to refocus their attention on monetary aggregates
Czech central bank halts tightening
Many had expected new governor and board to take dovish turn
Australian government to review RBA mandate and governance
Review will look into the board structure and performance, after RBA suffers criticism over policy choices
Rethinking regulation of the modern financial system
Bank of Italy’s Maurizio Trapanese writes that rules need to address uncertainty as well as measurable risks, entity types as well as activities, and should not be overly complex
BoE’s Pill says focus is on slower-moving elements of inflation
Policy-makers trying to walk “narrow path” as they resist second-round effects of high inflation
Quarterly forecast updates are the norm at central banks
Forecasting tends to be a collaborative exercise between staff and policy-makers
Top central bankers admit inflation models fell short
Reliance on Phillips curve and demand-driven models may have created blind spots
Hungary makes shock 185bp rate increase
Central bank responds to inflation and weak forint with largest increase since 2008
The signal and the noise: cash forecasting in uncertain times
From big data tools to Arima models and structural time series, cash forecasting methods are evolving. The work could prove critical to the future of cash during uncertain times
RBNZ tightening policy ‘by more and sooner’
Central bank orders second 50bp hike, the fifth increase since last October
BoE’s Pill says UK facing strong ‘inflationary momentum’
Latest inflation forecast “does not make for pretty reading”, says chief economist
Small drop in US CPI hints at inflation reprieve
Economists estimate US is past inflation peak, but other G7 nations may still be on the upward leg
Czech board raises rates in split vote
Central bank increases inflation forecast and awaits new governor appointment
Norges Bank bucks global trend with rate hold
Inflation has so far fallen short of the central bank’s projections
Fed’s Evans says current inflation ‘very different’ to past episodes
Inflation is following a “whale curve” and the Fed should target the body, president says
UK inflation climbs to 7%
Rapid rise in fuel prices pushes inflation to new 30-year high
Is a bond market crisis imminent?
Central banks need careful action and a good dose of luck if they are to avoid financial instability
Book notes: Cogs and monsters, by Diane Coyle
Coyle brings much-needed nuance to the debate over the shortcomings of economics
Central Banking Awards 2022: final winners unveiled
Prizes for Central bank of the year, Lifetime achievement, Transparency, Economics and more