Forecasting
RBA delivers another 25bp rate hike
Philip Lowe signals flexibility over further rate increases
Bank of Thailand governor calls for better inflation model
Phillips curve model under-predicts inflation, argues governor Sethaput
Armenia’s Galstyan calls for a new framework to tackle uncertainty and nonlinearities
Central Bank of Armenia governor says central banks can start to regain credibility by admitting their mistakes. This could include employing a risk-management approach to monetary policy aimed at avoiding nonlinear ‘dark corners’ and placing much less…
Bank of Thailand raises interest rate by 25 basis points
Central bank decision comes after headline inflation eased to around 6% in October
BoE’s Ramsden says forecasts now less reliable
High uncertainty means policy-makers cannot rely heavily on forecasts, deputy says
ECB paper presents new corporate default prediction method
Authors say their “distance to insolvency” measure outperforms other forecasting methods
Das outlines RBI’s post-Covid research reforms
Central bank has adopted “full information” system to capture economic dynamics
BoE officials reject criticism of forecast misses
Bailey says labour market dominates firms’ concerns and says Brexit has hampered economy
Serbia hikes for eighth consecutive month
Inflation is nearing peak and “slowdown was sharper than expected”, board says
RBNZ review says monetary tightening could have started earlier
Review endorses RBNZ’s pandemic measures, and calls for more attention to supply shocks
Some Latin American central banks pause tightening cycle
Paraguay second to hold rates after Brazil, as Peru and Chile signal they may do the same
Taiwan’s governor says uncertainties are hampering forecasting
Yang says central bank will examine wider range of data to improve inflation estimates
Armenian governor argues for ‘paradigm shift’ in forecasting
Base case should be abandoned in favour of multiple scenarios, says Martin Galstyan
Georgieva says Argentina needs permanent fix to FX problems
IMF releases latest $3.8bn financing tranche, as market inflation forecasts reach 100%
IMF publishes sober outlook for 2023
“Worst is yet to come”, says chief economist
Four more African central banks raise rates
Ghana raises policy rate to highest level since 2017, plus hikes in Uganda, Sierra Leone and Tunisia
Colombian president criticises central bank’s rate increases
Finance minister argues tighter policy could bring recession without reducing inflation
Inflation: what went wrong, and why?
Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan detail three theories on the causes of high inflation, as well as their implications for policy responses
Fed raises interest rate 75bp for third time
Powell reiterates pledge to “keep at it” until inflation is back to 2%
Economy’s ‘first responders’ now in the line of fire
Forceful but late interventions to combat inflation raise the risk of central bank overreactions
UK inflation dips below 10%
Lower fuel costs bring down headline figure, but underlying inflation remains strong
RBA’s Lowe admits inflation models need rethink
Governor acknowledges forecasting mistakes but rejects calls to resign
BoE policy-makers debate more aggressive tightening
New government and “extreme volatility” in energy markets complicate outlook
ECB’s Lane and Schnabel strike different notes on eurozone inflation
Schnabel says “right tail” shift could herald de-anchoring, but Lane says other outcomes are possible