Expectations
The Covid crisis, central banks and the future
Crisis responses have had positive initial outcomes, but also exacerbated significant underlying challenges that raise concerns related to exit strategies and the future for central banks
Ulrich Bindseil on the launch of the digital euro
The ECB’s director-general for market infrastructure and payments speaks about the functionality, tiering approaches, privacy policies, ledger technology and ecosystem impact of the eurozone's planned CBDC
RBI paper tracks impact of rising transparency on expectations
Research uses text mining to study changing degree of transparency at the RBI
ECB says new data highlights stabilising effect of inflation expectations
Analysts argue that new approach to analysing surveys has “important practical advantages”
Firms and households form inflation expectations very differently – paper
Confidence in economy has strongly divergent effects, Central Bank of Ireland research finds
Hernández de Cos on ECB policy, crises responses and Basel reform
Spanish governor and Basel Committee chair Pablo Hernández de Cos favours a form of average inflation targeting, says ECB is willing to boost stimulus and Basel reforms not diminished by Covid-19 exceptions; stresses the need for structural reform and…
What does 2021 hold for the ECB?
Former officials reflect on AIT, how the strategy review may affect normalisation, QE options and the need for new tools
ECB is caught in a ‘communications trap’ – Issing
Monetary policy architect says ‘close to’ 2% inflation target was never part of original plan; urges ECB to reject Fed-like average inflation targeting
The dawn of average inflation targeting
The Fed has failed to explain how it will calculate the ‘average’ for its new AIT framework, raising new risks that central bankers would do well to reflect on
Otmar Issing on the art of central bank communications
EMU architect speaks about Draghi’s “whatever it takes” intervention, forward guidance failures, the Fed’s average inflation target ‘miscommunication’, and why the ECB may be overreaching in its strategy review
Monetary-fiscal policy co-operation and the ‘slippery slope’
Barry Eichengreen assesses the risks central banks face from their closer links to fiscal policy
Is there a path between the Covid abyss and chasm of financial risk?
Macro-prudential policies are being used to prevent economies from falling into the Covid abyss while also ensuring that a correction in ever-higher asset prices do not crush the economy. Are both objectives achievable?
Georgia’s Gvenetadze on implementing an aggressive reform agenda
The National Bank of Georgia governor speaks about efforts to improve monetary policy, financial infrastructure, financial literacy, transparency and ESG
Frank Smets on the ECB’s strategy review
The ECB’s DG of economics explains how expectations, communication, fiscal dominance, climate change and the Fed’s actions will be factored into the ECB’s delayed strategy review
Marshall Islands readies to make waves in digital currency
Island nation ready to issue blockchain-based national currency if its new government gives the go-ahead, chairman of foundation says
Fed’s new framework splits opinion
Former Fed officials offer mixed reactions to average inflation targeting, with most calling for the US central bank to refine its communication
Haldane makes case against ‘economic anxiety’
Communication essential to avoid caution “morphing into fear and fatalism”, says BoE chief economist
Fed’s new framework has had little impact on expectations – NBER paper
Early evidence suggests few people heard the announcement and fewer understood it
Broadbent dismisses concerns over monetary financing
High debt and aggressive easing do not equate to monetary financing, says Bank of England deputy
Colombia cuts rates to record-low 2%
Below-target inflation allows new central bank action to boost growth
Raising inflation expectations may depress growth – Jackson Hole paper
More nuanced communication would help public understand state of the economy, say researchers
James Bullard on the Fed’s policy review, FSOC and forecasting jobs data
St Louis Fed president discusses his support for average inflation targeting, his concerns about US Treasuries market function, non-bank regulatory weakness and negative rates, as well as the unexpected success in using Homebase data to predict highly…
Improvements in US consumer expectations halt in July
Households more pessimistic as Covid-19 continues to spread, New York Fed survey reveals
Peter Praet on Europe’s Covid-19 responses
The former ECB chief economist talks about threats to financial stability, negative rates, common debt issuance and steps to improve the EMU