Expectations
New York Fed opens new research centre
Marco Del Negro will lead work on research methods and issues in macroeconomics
Central bank signals could be impacting natural rate – BIS paper
“Learning process” could explain decline in interest rates without drop in productivity, authors say
Czech National Bank makes 125bp hike
Central bank promises aggressive action to resist “exceptionally strong price pressures”
‘Say what?’ Trust in central bank communications
Central banks are changing how they communicate with different audiences, but judging the success of these communication efforts is difficult
Forecaster surveys improve eurozone inflation modelling – ECB paper
Households’ and firms’ expectations do not provide useful data on inflation
Permanent or transitory? Officials wrestle with inflation uncertainty
Bailey warns of possible damage to credibility, but Carstens urges caution amid high uncertainty
James Bullard on Fed policy, action and governance
St Louis president calls for tapering amid “exceptional” job market and risk of “more persistent” inflation, quantifies ‘big tent language’ for pioneering AIT move, and details Congress’s role in Fed ethics oversight
Mexican inflation rising rapidly, warns deputy governor
Heath says prices increasing at “really phenomenal” rate but expects full pandemic recovery by 2023
US CPI inflation rises to 5.4%
Prices continue upward climb, but policy-makers still see pressures as temporary
Covid-19, crypto and climate weigh on global economy – GFSR
Central banks face difficult “intertemporal trade-offs”; poorer nations unlikely to regain pre-Covid growth levels for “many, many years”, says IMF’s financial counsellor Tobias Adrian
Summers fears for Fed’s ability to remove ‘punchbowl’
Central banks may not be able to counter inflation threat amid possible return to 1960s economics, says former US Treasury secretary
Peru central bank raises rates for third time in two months
BCRP forecasts inflation will return to target, but expresses concern over expectations
Larry Summers on stagflation risks, lessons from Delphi and never-ending ‘punch’
The former US Treasury secretary speaks about fiscal ‘overexpansion’, Fed/Treasury debt discord, the pitfalls of ‘unknown unknowns’ and central bankers ‘unable’ to remove the ‘punchbowl’
Goodhart, Gopinath and Lippi disagree on inflation
Central banks lack tools to deal with inflation, Goodhart warns, but IMF chief economist disagrees
Agustín Carstens on BIS strategic priorities, innovation and central bank policy
The BIS general manager speaks about policy trade-offs at critical time, tackling NBFIs and the dearth of ‘green’ assets, tech collaboration, and why he favours Biden’s $3.5trn infrastructure bill
Central banks set monetary policy around eight times a year
African central banks reported setting monetary policy less frequently than peers
Majority of central banks do not take account of forecast errors
Surveys of inflationary expectations used widely, alongside macroeconomic and market indicators
Too great expectations from the ECB’s strategy review
The review process represents operational best practice, but will fail to unify the Governing Council
Is the ECB’s strategy review enough?
The reformed framework may allow greater stimulus to tackle weak inflation expectations, but the Governing Council is already divided on what to do next
Fed decisions barely noticed by households – BIS paper
Researchers find even major events have only a muted impact on household inflation expectations
An assessment of the ECB’s strategy review
A number of aspects of the new framework raise challenges for implementation and credibility, while the inclusion of climate change may politicise the institution, writes euro architect Otmar Issing
The evolution of the renminbi
Central Banking speaks to five policy-makers about their thoughts on the prominence of the renminbi within central bank reserves following its inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights.
Communications Benchmarks 2021 report – executive summary
Insights into staffing and salaries, channels, social media, new technology and strategies
Bank of Russia increases policy rate 100bp
Central bank announces fourth rate hike of year amid rising inflation expectations