Economics
Liberalising services trade could tackle imbalances – BoE paper
Finding ways of reducing barriers to services trade could substantially cut imbalances
ESM hails Greece’s progress in third bailout
The country should exit the programme in August as growth accelerates and bond yields fall
Menon warns of Singapore's ‘demographic trilemma’
MAS chief says Singapore “must accept” slower growth of the labour force, but should also face up to the need for solutions
Fed paper models risk-taking channel of monetary policy
Model in which monetary expansion increases risk-taking appears to fit with the data
BIS paper: unconventional policies may have depressed natural rate
Economists find shifts in estimates of the natural rate co-move with unexpected changes in unconventional policy
Bundesbank panellists call for change in German ‘mindset’
Mario Monti says he would like to free Germans from their economic “straightjacket”, while Benoît Cœuré hints at need for rebalancing
Big data can give valuable labour market signal – Fed paper
High-frequency private payroll data is useful in forecasting the labour market, researchers find
BoE economists challenge conventional wisdom on yield curve
Steeper curve may not be as good for bank profitability as widely believed
German coalition talks open possibility of reformed ESM
European Commission proposed creating a new institution to lead crisis programmes in December
BoE’s Tenreyro sees hopeful signs for UK productivity
Many factors dragging on productivity may soon start to fade, MPC member says, though the UK seems to be missing out on a global investment boom
‘Goldilocks economy’ implies bears may not be far away – Menon
Despite reasons for optimism, “three grumpy bears” may soon return, says MAS chief
Economists need to better understand macrofinancial links – BIS paper
Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose call for “new generation of models” among other research to solve ongoing puzzles
Combined nowcasts can improve GDP estimates – paper
Paper compares performance of nowcast models in estimating GDP from 2016–2015
Dudley warns Trump tax plan leaves US finances ‘unsustainable’
New York Fed chief says policymakers may have to tighten rates harder to offset stimulus
BIS paper explores effects of global factors on inflation
Authors find impact of global factors is mainly temporary, but the effects appear more significant for countries without long-established inflation targets
Macroeconomics suffers from blind spot, says Borio
Misallocated resources can explain a large part of recent productivity slowdowns, but thinking in aggregate terms obscures this, says BIS economist
Financial initiatives may bypass people with lower financial literacy, paper says
Reforms in Israel designed to benefit the whole population did not reach some groups
Veteran economists weigh in on ‘rebuilding’ macro theory
Economists including Olivier Blanchard, Andy Haldane and Simon Wren-Lewis tackle the question of how – and whether – to save the DSGE model
Fed paper studies inequality in three dimensions
Authors find examining three dimensions simultaneously gives new insights
Demographic changes reduce US labour participation rate
As the baby boomer generation retires, the recovery cannot offset their absence
Economists are misinterpreting ‘Triffin dilemma’, says BIS paper
Michael Bordo and Robert McCauley argue there was nothing certain about the collapse of Bretton Woods, but Triffin’s successful prediction led others to mistakenly reapply his theory
Monetary regimes drive real rates, BIS paper finds
Claudio Borio et al study data going back to 1870 in search of factors pushing down real rates
Public spending cuts have bigger multiplier than fiscal stimulus – paper
Research weakens case for expansionary policies, say authors
Early asset purchases much more successful – BIS paper
Authors find effectiveness falls over time as the shock wears off, questioning the value of long-running quantitative easing