Economics
High-frequency data could improve GDP estimates – RBI researchers
Initial data releases tend to be revised upwards, the authors find
Haldane envisages ‘iterative’ approach to advancing economics
Deductive and inductive approaches “need to share a broadly equal billing”, BoE chief economist says, setting out how the central bank has made use of big data
Emerging markets still taking on dollar debts, BIS data shows
Rapid growth in credit to emerging markets echoed by broader rises in global liquidity
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Swedish paper examines effects of business cycles on employment
Volatile business cycles cut the number of new jobs and employment, Riksbank paper says; analysis uses labour market search model to track effects
Few US low-wage workers progress in labour market – Fed research
Only 5% had a better job within one year, and the group is more likely to become unemployed
Claims on offshore centres at record high – BIS data
Overall cross-border claims “gained momentum” in Q4 2017
US steel tariffs likely to damage labour market – NY Fed research
Exporters who need steel imports face higher input costs, possibly leading to lower employment
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues
Higher expenditure in services limits trade growth – Fed paper
Growth of trade in 1990s and 2000s may be anomalous, researchers say
Satellite night-time light data could forecast US exports – Fed paper
Night-time lights offer a quick and accurate picture of economic activity, researchers say
Fed forecasts overcompensate for trend deviations, paper says
Federal Reserve tends to “overpredict” growth when the economy is running below trend
More older people and women joining labour force, RBNZ paper finds
New Zealand’s labour force participation has grown since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2017
Student debt has wider ramifications for US economy – Harker
Older generations are taking on new debt to help younger family members
Real rates likely to move back up – BIS paper
Use of “shadow rate” allows authors to account for the effective lower bound
BoE paper hunts for shifts in forecast accuracy
Authors outline new method of detecting when forecasts break down
US labour participation rate down more than OECD average – Dallas Fed
Higher incarceration rates and worse social services may partly explain trend
IMF analyses demographic and technological changes affecting productivity
IMF researchers say right policy choices can offset the negative impacts of technological and demographic changes
RBA paper offers new way to add housing sector to DSGE models
Authors find their model delivers “reasonable” forecast performance
High-frequency data helps capture ‘psychological subtlety’ – BoJ paper
Study of “tick-by-tick” data finds markets have become more sensitive to the central bank’s policy announcements
Israel’s Flug calls for higher-quality labour market
Bank of Israel governor says country is close to full employment but must do more to improve labour market conditions
Lagarde proposes new European fiscal fund
The mechanism would reduce reliance on monetary policy to respond to future crises
Yield curve can help improve forecasts – RBNZ economists
Yield curve information tends to improve forecasts of economic activity, researchers find
IMF unveils new data strategy
Fund’s first ever “overarching strategy” on data envisages new approach to gathering, processing and sharing statistics