Economics
Blanchard calls for rethink on costs of debt
Fiscal cost of public debt may be zero, macroeconomist argues, but that does not make debt costless
US payrolls data proves strong
Non-farm payrolls beat expectations and wage growth rises, despite fears of a global slowdown
EME banks have ‘substantially’ increased global footprint – BIS research
Study finds emerging market banks have taken a greater role as their home economies have grown
Lower oil prices and stronger lira send Turkey and Argentina diverging
In 2019, analysts expect inflation to drop sharply in Argentina and to bounce back in Turkey
Bank of England to overhaul consumer interest rate statistics
Changes are designed to ensure the statistics reflect consumers’ experiences “as closely as possible”
Podcast: The post-crisis world
Andrew Metrick says central banks have changed dramatically since 2008, but more work may be needed to develop new models
Oxford academic argues Milton Friedman is misunderstood
James Forder says Friedman had a bigger impact on neoclassical economics than on monetarism
BoE paper proposes fix for flawed rate expectation estimates
Model augmented with overnight indexed swap rates performs better, author says
BoE paper proposes nowcast method for GDP revisions
Dynamic factor model reveals information on how early estimates may be revised, authors say
IMF’s Adrian calls for forecasting upgrade
Policy forecasts should do a better job of capturing endogenous risk, economist says
Agent-based models: a new frontier for macroeconomics?
Agent-based modelling is opening up new possibilities for economics, but the discipline is still struggling to move from the sidelines to the mainstream
BoE paper highlights flaws in bank modelling
Many models still treat banks as “warehouses”, authors say, with important modelling implications
Africa at risk from faster policy normalisation – Kenya’s Nyaoga
Higher interest rates could threaten portfolio inflows for a region struggling with price rises
Former Fed chair laments US disarray
“How can you run a democracy when nobody believes in the leadership of the country?”, Paul Volcker asks
Tunisia’s El Abassi on central banking during a regional security crisis
Central Bank of Tunisia’s governor talks about capacity building, evolving relations with the IMF, integration among the Arab states and using technology to foster inclusion
Haldane examines ‘puzzling pattern’ of weak wage growth
Average weekly wages are now lower than before the crisis, in real terms
Haldane to lead effort to boost UK productivity
BoE chief economist appointed chair of the Industrial Strategy Council
Solid US economy contributes to higher 10-year Treasury yields
Inverted yield curve less likely as long-term growth and inflation expectations rise
Nafta deal to reduce uncertainty in Canada and Mexico
Regional rate-setters have become increasingly concerned about effects of trade disruptions
Italy’s expansionary budget increases pressure on debt
Draghi warns government plans have tightened financial conditions for households and businesses
US growth remains solid in Q3 – Atlanta Fed
Real-time GDP estimation signals 4.4% growth in current quarter
Market power, intangibles and risk premia behind low risk-free rates – paper
Brookings paper questions savings glut and technological slowdown hypotheses
Book notes: The other half of macroeconomics, by Richard Koo
Richard Koo questions whether central bank policy can work during a balance sheet recession, writes Graham Bannock
Automation of financial services poses problem for labour market
Central bankers fear the labour market may not recover as quickly as during previous technological revolutions