Economics
Poloz considers the future of economic modelling
Theoretical and empirical two-pronged approach likely to stay, governor says, though economists are still on the hunt for the “holy grail” single model
Fiscal rules fail to tackle EU policy biases – IMF research
Many biases relate to political economy factors, and should be tackled by future adjustments to the governance framework, IMF economists say
Brexit pain may be coming – panel
Former Bank of England officials warn of fading consumer spending and investment
BIS authors identify tipping point in household debt impact
Researchers trace the effects of household debt on the real economy, identifying thresholds beyond which the long-run impact on consumption and growth intensifies
Dominican Central Bank reports growth of 6.6%
Provisional data from the bank shows it is the fastest growing within the region for the fourth year in a row; agriculture sector fuelling rapid growth
Italian inflation pressures are weakening – ECB paper
Price cuts are more common for manufactured goods, the researchers say, while price increases for services are slowing
ECB papers examine low inflation
Researchers differ over eurozone inflation expectations
Helicopter money would have little impact, Dutch paper says
Household survey suggests little impact on inflation expectations, researchers argue
Irish governor calls for better international finance data
Links between holders and issuers of instruments are badly understood, Lane says
CLS signs MoU with Chinese think-tank
The forex utility will work with the National Institution for Financial Development to support the renminbi’s internationalisation
Coeuré: Europe must redistribute gains from new technologies
Automation might destroy jobs faster than it creates them, ECB official says
LatAm should pursue regional financial integration – IMF paper
Timing is “ripe” for region to pursue financial integration as means of counterbalancing effects of departing global banks, authors say
Dutch paper looks at effects of public capital on advanced country growth
Researchers present data on 20 OECD countries
RBNZ paper sheds light on core macro model
'NZSIM' is a semi-structural model, with a DSGE core augmented with a handful of additional equations
Riksbank early warning indicator signals high risks
New measure of financial fragility performs better than credit gap method, economists say; current readings suggest risks are on a par with 2008
BIS paper finds Fed’s QE had little discernible impact on real economy
Results are still preliminary, authors say, but “cast some doubt” on the effectiveness of US quantitative easing
No evidence fiscal rules affected Spanish deficits – paper
Researchers look at fiscal record of Spanish regional governments over 2002–15
Farms, germs and loans: central banking in 19th century France
Researchers study Banque de France’s lender-of-last-resort operations
BIS paper presents evidence on Uruguayan price setting
Authors develop survey-based measure of firms’ price-setting behaviour, which may prove useful for research on other emerging markets
Eichengreen sees danger in US fiscal stimulus
Veteran economist warns infrastructure spending in the US may prove damaging to both the domestic and global economy, without necessarily fixing secular stagnation
Villeroy de Galhau highlights factors behind slow growth
French governor highlights importance of wage-setting mechanisms
IMF raises projections for US and eurozone growth for 2017
US policy mix still uncertain, but IMF staff do not yet believe changes will trigger an international trade shock; growth projections for emerging economies revised downwards
Measurement error a big part of ‘missing growth’ – Philippe Aghion
Statistics fail to capture creative destruction, French academic argues; US researchers say productivity in IT sector points to continued puzzle
Dutch paper looks at sovereign bank interdependencies
Researchers apply correlation between sovereign and bank credit default swaps