Economics
RBA paper assesses FOMC’s forecasting performance
RBA and Fed economists collaborate on study of forecasting errors by the Federal Open Market Committee
Bank of Spain paper calculates implicit public debt thresholds
Researchers build on earlier work and apply models to Spanish data
Caruana: financial globalisation is not over
BIS chief says “peak finance” has not arrived, despite signs of a slowdown in global banking activity; warns against inward-looking policy-making
BoE paper raises risk of ‘bubbly growth traps’
Asset bubbles can direct resources to low-productivity sectors, which could explain the long hangover from recent crises, author says
IMF stays tough on debt relief as it prepares to return to Greece
Maurice Obstfeld and other top officials stress the fund’s demands on debt sustainability; mission to return to Greece next week
Economic shocks more likely to spread within EU – new research
Researchers use new model to measure propagation of regional shocks in Europe
Broad sectors of Irish economy are ‘very connected’ – study
Irish research uses network analysis to look at sectoral linkages
BoE unlikely to predict next financial crisis, says MPC member
BoE MPC members grilled by MPs in forecasting models and past errors; Vlieghe says current models are just not good enough
FOMC sentiment effects tested with ‘computational linguistics’
Economists find sentiment conveyed by FOMC statements affects policy expectations, inflation, and industrial production
Fed’s Williams says labour market figures are accurate
Current unemployment rate “accurately” reflects the state of the labour market; San Francisco Fed researches a broader measure of the market
IMF paper examines bank lending in Saudi Arabia
Despite low oil prices, credit to the private sector “remained robust”, but an overreliance on banks financing the deficit needs to stop, author says
Consultancy and advisory services provider of the year (core): BearingPoint
BearingPoint’s consultants received high praise for their work in helping central banks manage large volumes of regulatory data, and the firm’s software underwent an upgrade in 2016
IMF authors build network model of trade fragility
Network theory helps authors unpick the effects of a supply shock on the “highly interconnected” global trade system
Asia needs new growth model – BoJ’s Kuroda
Region can no longer serve as “the workshop of the world” as the trade in goods slows down, says the Bank of Japan governor
Fed’s Fischer: econometric models are still flawed
US Fed vice-chair says models still cannot capture the complexities and rapid evolution of the economy – despite his hopes as an undergraduate
Economics in central banking: Leo Krippner
His work on term structure modelling has helped central bank policy-makers to track the effects of unconventional policies and it raises many interesting possibilities for future research
New tax measures biggest threat to Jamaican inflation
Increases in income tax threshold will impact inflation, latest report warns; exchange rate depreciation and international oil prices are also a concern
Monetary aggregates useful as eurozone inflation predictor – paper
“Predictive content” of monetary aggregates has improved since 2012, ECB paper says
Consumption shows asymmetric response to shocks – BoE paper
Households appear to respond more strongly to temporary negative shocks than positive ones, and effects are different for borrowers and savers
ZLB magnifies impacts of uncertainty shocks, paper says
Differences caused by zero lower bound are “economically important”, researchers say
Fed paper flags risk of low rates misallocating capital
Where firms rely heavily on intangible capital, lower rates could harm firms’ investment and contribute to secular stagnation, economists warn
Mongolia sees hope of recovery after rough year
The commodity reliant country faced slowing growth and inflation in 2016, but the outlook for this year is somewhat brighter
GDP calculation needs double deflation, says IMF paper
Single deflation techniques introduce errors which can be significant, authors argue, concluding all nations should use double deflation
Energy base effects pushing recent eurozone inflation – ECB
Effect estimated to be negative for much of second half of 2017