Macroeconomics
Long-term inflationary pressure set to rise, research finds
Changed environment makes central banks’ task harder, Kenneth Rogoff and other researchers say
Dallas Fed analysis explains puzzle of strong US economy
Authors say US has enjoyed favourable supply-side conditions that others missed out on
IMF chief urges China to adopt pro-market reforms
Comprehensive reforms could add $3.5 trillion to economy over next 15 years, Georgieva says
New study finds uneven impact of changing energy costs
Energy prices more likely to affect product prices than wage increases
BIS research points to ‘slower disinflation ahead’
Breakdown of post-Covid surge finds services prices playing bigger role
Natural rate is rising in US and eurozone, BIS study finds
Research adds to debate on metric but warns it is “blurry guidepost” for monetary policy
‘Cost of money’ explains depressed US consumers – NBER research
Larry Summers and co-authors highlight “disconnect in inflation measurement”
RBI challenges IMF’s call for larger fiscal consolidation
Study argues bigger budget cuts not necessary if government focuses on development spending
Inflation memories pass from parents to children – research
Fear of hyperinflation influences behaviour across generational divides
Researchers warn US vacancies are ‘untethered’ from other data
Minneapolis Fed economists say US could face “more substantial job losses”
The risks facing the Chinese economy
China isn’t at risk of a financial meltdown, but it does face a slow puncture, writes Michael Taylor
Memory shapes inflation expectations, study finds
People who remember high inflation also trust the central bank less, authors say
Monetary policy helped curb inflation expectations – research
Higher rates could achieve a “soft landing” if the expectations channel is strong enough, authors say
Obstfeld argues central banks’ rate models are ‘conceptually flawed’
Former IMF chief economist says rates could soon return to the effective lower bound
BIS weighs possible shift in global liquidity conditions
Nervy markets struggle to digest rates outlook, as BIS research finds deeper shift may be underway
PCE inflation falls in the US
Atlanta Fed president says data suggests inflation will only continue to fall
Strong dollar harms EME bond market liquidity – BIS paper
Dealer intermediation vulnerable to both “original sin” and “original sin redux”
UK inflation falls more than BoE had expected
Housing prices fall year on year for first time since 2012, while energy prices also decline
UK financial institutions are ‘global public good’, says Bailey
BoE governor warns against fragmentation, criticises Brexit and discounts rate cuts
China slides back into deflation
Falling pork prices are a major drag on consumer prices
Covid-era fiscal policy helped fuel inflation, researchers say
Robert Barro and Francesco Bianchi say their evidence supports fiscal theory of the price level
Sweden faces lower employment and labour force growth
Integration of foreign-born citizens is key to keep expanding labour force, says Riksbank research
Asian bond spreads with US not widening, BIS research finds
Central banks’ actions have decoupled EME bonds from stronger dollar, researchers say
China boosts support for economy with new debt issuance
The central government will issue one trillion yuan in bonds in the fourth quarter