Macroeconomics
US CPI inflation rises slightly
Rising shelter prices cause more than 90% of increase, but SF Fed predicts they will fall
Shelter inflation set to fall significantly – SF Fed research
“Conservative” model predicts shelter inflation will be 0% in the US by summer 2024
Global growth is stalling: what must be done?
Jagjit Chadha says leaders are failing to make a serious attempt to tackle deepening global problems
Taiwanese governor flags US sanctions risks
Yang says Taiwan should pay attention to the widening trade surplus with US
Book notes: The crisis of democratic capitalism, by Martin Wolf
A sincere attempt to explain and fix the failing of capitalism in liberal democracies
Algeria is applying to join Brics bank, says president
Country joins Argentina and Honduras on list of applicants
ECB paper models ‘state-dependent’ impact of capital ratios
Model simulates ratio changes’ effects on credit supply in different macro-financial conditions
UK inflation falls to 7.9%
Drop exceeds Reuters poll prediction, but headline rate still almost four times target
Egypt announces ‘record’ inflation
Inflation continues rising despite monetary tightening and could trigger IMF consultation
World Bank releases country income classifications
Seven countries promoted, while Jordan falls a category due to population growth
Fed economists estimate natural rate still at rock bottom
Analysis implies policy rate is firmly in restrictive territory and may not remain high
Book notes: Labor in the age of finance, by Sanford M Jacoby
A fascinating attempt to document the US labour movement’s efforts to use pension fund money to bolster its voice
Central banks face tough fight for ‘last mile’ of disinflation – BIS
Credit losses could rival global financial crisis in higher-for-longer scenario, institution warns
Zambia agrees foreign debt deal
Government agrees to repay faster if IMF assesses its ability to do so has risen
AI may demand ‘entirely new’ regulatory approach – IMF’s Gopinath
Deputy managing director says artificial intelligence risks “broad negative effect” on employment
Bernanke and Blanchard reassess causes of inflation surge
Economists who predicted surge misunderstood underlying causes, study finds
‘Robust’ wage growth consistent with disinflation – BIS paper
But firms need to avoid increasing their profit margins, authors find
Bank of Italy expresses concerns over flat tax
Official says policy is typical of emerging markets and could weaken income redistribution
Steeper Phillips curve cannot fully explain inflation surge – IMF paper
Structural factors have led to some steepening but it is not the full story, authors say
ECB paper suggests faster methods for estimating eurozone employment
Nowcasting tools outperform models currently used by ECB, researchers say
Advanced economies face slowdown and stubborn inflation
Jagjit Chadha analyses the shifting outlook for the world economy, with more hard work ahead for central banks
NBER paper proposes ‘resurrecting’ non-linear Phillips curve
Original version of the curve is “strongly non-linear” and helps explain current inflation, authors say
What economists learned from Covid-19
A rush of work on ‘epi-macro’ yielded breakthroughs and then faded. Will there be lasting benefits?
BoE’s Broadbent denies money supply is driving inflation
Deputy governor says M4 growth neither driven by QE or particularly linked to inflation