Data
The data deluge
Big data can help economists overcome weak theories and improve our knowledge, but it also comes with with larger pitfalls
Dallas Fed research seeks to improve real-time inflation forecasts
Economists break surveys of inflation expectations down into parts, finding stripping out the noise component improves forecasting
Harnessing growing data volumes: The St Louis Fed
Huge demand for macroeconomic data that is easily accessible, international and granular is driving the rise of this global data hub. Daniel Hinge meets the Fred team
Data as a critical factor for central banks
Central banks must industrialise data-handling processes to deliver better decision-making, says Maciej Piechocki of BearingPoint
Big data in central banking: 2016 survey
Results and analysis of a survey examining how central banks view big data and data governance in their institutions
Bank of Namibia revises growth forecasts
Latest economic outlook warns lower production from the mining sector will have an impact on GDP levels for this year, but growth is expected to pick up in 2017
AnaCredit: banking with (pretty) big data
The supranational credit database in Europe will help policy-makers and banks assess cross-border risk when it goes live in 2018, writes Aurel Schubert, director-general of the European Central Bank’s statistics department
Sponsored forum: Evaluating big data capabilities in central banking
Central Banking convened a panel of experts to discuss the big questions about big data, how and where it can add value to central banking in the near term, and balancing the pros against the cons
Blanchard and Acalin warn of FDI measurement problems
Measured foreign direct investment is not as long term as generally thought, often reflecting transient capital flows and responding to US monetary policy, economists find
Output gap in euro area is much larger than official estimates – paper
Official estimates predict output gap 3–4% less negative than author’s results; current models do not “adequately capture” inflation developments
Evaluating big data capabilities in central banking
Central Banking convened a panel of experts to discuss how big data can add value to central banking in the near term, the need for good governance, and balancing the pros against the cons
UK inflation jump to 1% is just ‘tip of the iceberg’
Latest inflation data shows leap from 0.6% in August to 1% in September; former MPC member Sentance says this is just tip of the iceberg
Big data could cut regulatory costs, say panellists
Big data could lead to a reduction in costly regulatory reporting, but three experts say there is still a long way to go before the figures are up to scratch
BoJ paper harnesses census data to improve industry surveys
Researchers aim to make the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey more accurate from a smaller sample, based on Japan’s economic census
ECB paper examines use of eurozone bank lending survey
Changes in credit standards in the ECB’s bank lending survey serve as leading indicators for GDP and bank loan growth, researchers say
Book notes: The power of a single number, by Philipp Lepenies
Lepenies offers a brief but very readable treatment of GDP's political history, drawing out some important lessons in the process
US inflation target within ‘hailing distance’, says Fischer
The Fed is “close” to its targets says vice-chair; despite recent weak GDP figures, Fischer expects investment to recover in coming months
UK inflation climbs in first post-Brexit data
Prices rose 0.6% in the year to July, the highest inflation number for nearly two years, with signs the effect of the UK’s Brexit vote may be starting to feed through
Icelandic paper finds ‘striking’ ties between financial cycle and real economy
Authors identify strong financial cycle linked to global factors, which impacts macro variables including consumption and government spending; paper suggests range of policy responses
Croatian National Bank sees inflation recovering this year and next
Annual CPI inflation fell to –1.8% in May, but the central bank expects it to pick up in the coming months, eventually rising to 1.2% in 2017
BoE agents see firms aiming for ‘business as usual’ in wake of Brexit
Agents’ post-Brexit review shows housing market resilience while there are reports of some firms look to relocate back to the UK in wake of sterling depreciation; IMF updates forecasts
Network analysis sheds light on systemic risk – BoE paper
Pilot study of derivatives markets makes use of CDS data to map network of interlinkages, finding more than just immediate counterparty ties matter for systemic risk
Nouy sees need for rethink of reporting systems
Danièle Nouy says new thinking is needed to help banks and supervisors deal with a ‘paradigm shift’ in data collection; European reporting framework for all banks should be considered
Granular data aids policy transmission understanding, Draghi says
ECB president highlights “very rich information set” launched this week; involves reporting data on up to 35,000 daily transactions in the money market