Data
IMF paper offers new ways of measuring capital flow volatility
Authors say more granular dataset and three different methods of calculating capital flow volatility allow them to gain new insights
BoE unlikely to predict next financial crisis, says MPC member
BoE MPC members grilled by MPs in forecasting models and past errors; Vlieghe says current models are just not good enough
Fed’s Williams says labour market figures are accurate
Current unemployment rate “accurately” reflects the state of the labour market; San Francisco Fed researches a broader measure of the market
Consultancy and advisory services provider of the year (core): BearingPoint
BearingPoint’s consultants received high praise for their work in helping central banks manage large volumes of regulatory data, and the firm’s software underwent an upgrade in 2016
New tax measures biggest threat to Jamaican inflation
Increases in income tax threshold will impact inflation, latest report warns; exchange rate depreciation and international oil prices are also a concern
Mongolia sees hope of recovery after rough year
The commodity reliant country faced slowing growth and inflation in 2016, but the outlook for this year is somewhat brighter
GDP calculation needs double deflation, says IMF paper
Single deflation techniques introduce errors which can be significant, authors argue, concluding all nations should use double deflation
Dominican Central Bank reports growth of 6.6%
Provisional data from the bank shows it is the fastest growing within the region for the fourth year in a row; agriculture sector fuelling rapid growth
Irish governor calls for better international finance data
Links between holders and issuers of instruments are badly understood, Lane says
Measurement error a big part of ‘missing growth’ – Philippe Aghion
Statistics fail to capture creative destruction, French academic argues; US researchers say productivity in IT sector points to continued puzzle
Harker optimistic in first speech as FOMC voting member
Inflation target set to be met this year, says Philadelphia Fed governor, noting labour force participation issues need to be addressed with legislative action
Monitoring the labour market is key – BoE’s Saunders
Bank of England’s MPC member says unemployment should stay below the equilibrium 5% estimate in 2017 – but, should “warning signs appear”, changes to forecasts could be made
BoE paper tackles big data on Swiss franc de-pegging
Trade repository data sheds light on liquidity problems and market fragmentation around the removal of the SNB’s Swiss franc floor in January 2015
News cycle can give estimate of business cycle – Norges Bank paper
Index derived from business newspaper is both more timely and more accurate than traditional business cycle indicators, author says
Paper uses Swedish refugee data to assess financial literacy
Authors say the randomly determined placement of refugees in Sweden provides a handy natural experiment on how financial literacy can spread
Central banks working to overhaul data-sharing
IFC report finds many central banks are seeking ways to better share micro data, both internally and externally
Updated Bank of Mauritius survey questions people on inflation causes
Latest survey shows Mauritian stakeholders are wary of external factors; exchange rate was viewed as second most important factor under new question format
Economic growth on the horizon for Finland, says Liikanen
Improved productivity and higher employment are needed to boost economic growth, says Finnish governor; Bank of Finland’s forecasts show recovery will be slower than in previous cycles
BoE unveils database of macro-prudential policies
Researchers attempt to classify the myriad forms of macro-prudential policy, compiling panel data on when policies were tightened and loosened in different countries
OECD expects growth boost from Trump infrastructure plans
Organisation says “well targeted” public spending could help economies escape slow growth, though it warns protectionism might undo the benefits
Norges Bank paper presents new evidence on immigration impact
Authors seek to disentangle immigration shock from broader macroeconomic effects, using unique Norwegian data series
Central Bank of Brazil establishes data portal
Central bank creates hub for 454 data sets, combining data from government database and other sources; bank has plans to launch data promotion scheme in 2017
IMF lifts censure on Argentinian inflation
Inflation and GDP figures now in line with international standards, fund acknowledges; Lagarde praises Argentinian authority’s efforts to reform statistical agency
The data deluge
Big data can help economists overcome weak theories and improve our knowledge, but it also comes with with larger pitfalls