Labour market
Improvements in US consumer expectations halt in July
Households more pessimistic as Covid-19 continues to spread, New York Fed survey reveals
BoE says negative rates ‘in toolbox’ and forecasts slow recovery
First “proper” forecast since Covid-19 outbreak gives little hope of a V-shaped recovery
Labour market situation is ‘complicated’ – RBA’s Lowe
Unemployment likely to worsen despite initial signs of recovery, governor says
Singapore faces most severe downturn since independence – Menon
Singapore’s economic situation remains “dire” and activity will be below pre-crisis levels “for quite a while”
Brainard urges caution about US recovery
Bounce in activity came earlier than expected but major risks still loom, Fed board member says
US citizens think Fed’s communication strategy needs adapting – Fed report
“Fed Listens” events revealed a lack of understanding about inflation targeting, report shows
Recession causes inequality ‘double whammy’ – research
Paper links loss of hours worked to inequality, with recessions causing a negative ratchet effect
Fed promises to keep buying assets at current rate
Fed will hold accommodation in place for “however long it takes”, chair Jerome Powell says; FOMC releases first projections this year
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
Economists challenge standard notion of labour market recovery
Paper on post-crisis recoveries questions demand shortfall narrative
Lower-income households feel worst of Covid-19 economic shock – Fed survey
Nearly 40% of low-earning households faced at least one job loss in March, survey finds
Economists race to merge epidemiology and macro
Promising results are emerging, but workable forecasts may be some way off
Scale of Covid-19 impact shows up starkly in US stats
All of the US’s key macroeconomic indicators point to a dramatic slump
Fed set to adopt ‘elements’ of price-level targeting
Covid-19 could act as a catalyst for a Janet Yellen-supported Fed move to adopt elements of price-level targeting. But questions remain about the timing of such a move
ECB research finds Phillips curve still matters
Underlying relations are complicated, but slack and expectations still drive prices, economists say
Pandemics can depress natural rates for multiple decades – SF Fed
Real wages tend to rise gradually for 30 years after pandemics, data stretching back to 1340s shows
Women affected more by job losses in US lockdown – Kansas Fed
Roughly 60% of job losses were to women in the first half of March, researchers find
Covid-19 macro effects could last 40 years – research
Research from University of California says natural rate could take decades to return to normal
16% of US jobs in high-risk sectors – Brookings research
Researchers examine possible impact of coronavirus on US sectors and metropolitan areas
US economy could face largest quarterly contraction in history – Bullard
$2.5 trillion in national income might be wiped out, St Louis Fed president says; Congressional leaders agree $2 trillion stimulus package
US health system likely to be overwhelmed – Minneapolis Fed paper
Policy-makers must support massive healthcare investment and severe social distancing – researcher
Do low rates spur investment?
Many believe low interest rates spur investment, but there appears to be little hard evidence to support such claims, writes former IMF head Jacques de Larosière
Lifetime achievement award: Otmar Issing
The architect of the euro’s monetary operating framework is still playing an important role in shaping the debate on monetary policy
Fed leaves monetary stance unchanged but tweaks IOER
FOMC also announces updated plans on its balance sheet and repo market interventions