Labour market
BoE paper links debt and labour supply
Households behave differently depending on their wealth and debt, paper finds
Bailey puzzles over UK labour market signals
A lot of people are still out of the labour market, but unemployment remains low
BoE cuts UK growth forecast
Inflation likely to stay above 4% for first half of 2022 amid supply constraints and energy squeeze – MPC
Powell says taper test has been met ‘with regard to inflation’
Fed chair tells Jackson Hole conference that slowing QE this year “could be appropriate”
Link between US labour costs and inflation has weakened – ECB paper
US can sustain robust labour markets without risking inflation outbreak, researchers say
The ‘golden age’ of central banking has passed
Central banks face multi-faceted challenges and weakened autonomy amid highly polarised inflation expectations
Bank of England holds interest rates and asset purchases
MPC wants evidence spare capacity is being reduced but Haldane votes for lower asset purchases
Inflation expectations rising – NY Fed survey
Survey finds consumers predicting higher prices, but also better labour market conditions
Kuwaiti central bank orders local national quota for bank managers
Central bank says 70% of management of local banks must be Kuwaitis by 2023
SF Fed president says inequality could have cost US $2.6 trillion in 2019
Research paper argues opportunity and pay could increase labour output 40% by 2029
Unemployment set to rise to 8% in 2022 – Irish central bank
Bottlenecks in the jobs market may delay employment’s return to pre-pandemic levels
BoE holds interest rates as MPC members differ over risks
MPC points to signs of stronger recovery but also uncertainties around household spending
BoE paper outlines new theory of automation and inequality
Authors highlight “new theoretical mechanism” linking automation to higher wealth inequality
Richmond Fed’s Barkin calls for more vocational training
Tom Barkin says US infrastructure workforce depleted; advocates more immigration
Design flaws in Covid relief package cost millions of jobs – Fed paper
Delay to paycheck protection programme had “very substantial” impact, economists argue
Economics Benchmarks 2020 report – executive summary
Shedding light on economics governance, salaries, forecasting, research, publications and more
Early non-employment ‘scars’ workers – Bank of Italy paper
Effect is particularly severe for non-graduates and when conditions are good, research finds
Furlough schemes may conceal slack in EU labour market – ECB research
The longer the pandemic continues, the more job reallocation will be needed, authors say
NBER paper seeks lessons for home working in Industrial Revolution
Move to remote working could be undermined by organisational problems, authors warn
Book notes: The great demographic reversal, by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan
An important book, predicting that powerful demographic forces will upend conventional thinking on macroeconomics and policy
Bank of Italy paper looks at flatter Phillips curve
Weaker collective bargaining has played key role in flattening relationship, researchers say
Fed holds rates as US recovery falters
Powell calls for fiscal stimulus and says further Covid-19 wave is hitting poor hardest
RBA cuts rate and ramps up yield curve control
Economy is rebounding but central bank is worried about high unemployment
Fed paper presents model of Covid-19 trade-offs
Data-driven model implies lockdown can work if a vaccine can be developed quickly enough