Expectations
How US demographics complicate the Fed’s job
Ageing population and pandemic legacy are confounding economists’ predictions
BoT’s Sethaput on inflation dynamics, central bank mandates and multi-lateral payments
The Bank of Thailand governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about the trend towards higher inflation, the sustainable finance challenge, experiments with CBDCs and governance issues related to multi-lateral payments
Fed officials say rates may have to rise despite CPI fall
Harker, Bowman, Williams and Logan sound hawkish notes in speeches
Can new BoJ governor Ueda maintain his neutral position?
Kazuo Ueda will face divided views on monetary easing and its growing side-effects when he takes office, writes Sayuri Shirai
Masayoshi Amamiya favoured to become next BoJ governor
Analysts reflect on next BoJ governor’s most pressing challenges and Kuroda’s legacy
Brazil continues to hold rates despite president’s objections
Former governor says president’s speech reduced chance of bank loosening policy
Fed slows tightening cycle again with 25bp rate rise
More rate hikes likely as Powell expresses concern over expectations “getting unanchored”
Wanted: radical ideas for inflation modelling
Hedge funds echo Mervyn King’s calls for a new approach to inflation modelling post-2022 crisis
Colombia says tightening cycle may be nearing end
Central bank board splits 5–2 on 75bp rate hike
Stefan Ingves on leadership, prudential oversight and transparency
The Riksbank and Basel Committee veteran speaks about his leadership philosophy, Basel III deal-making and concerns about regulatory rollback, the value of QE and negative rates, and the need for a legal architecture for CBDCs
Rates round-up: Canada to pause after 25bp rate rise
Thailand ups 25bp; Nigeria increases sharply; Angola opts for cut; and more
Fed slows rate rises with 50bp increase
Powell stresses possibility of soft landing supported by “structural labour shortage”
Book notes: A monetary and fiscal history of the United States, 1961–2021, by Alan Blinder
The book’s breakthrough is its infusion of the history of fiscal policy into a theoretical framework traditionally focused on monetary instruments. It is a splendid and thrilling read
The ECB’s collateral conundrum
A lack of high-quality collateral in the eurozone has resulted in money market rates lagging ECB policy rates, hampering monetary policy transmission
Armenia’s Galstyan calls for a new framework to tackle uncertainty and nonlinearities
Central Bank of Armenia governor says central banks can start to regain credibility by admitting their mistakes. This could include employing a risk-management approach to monetary policy aimed at avoiding nonlinear ‘dark corners’ and placing much less…
Chile’s Costa on tackling inflation, forex interventions and nowcasting
The Central Bank of Chile governor speaks about stubbornly high prices, Fed policy spillovers, reserve buffers, retail CBDC and the need to address unconscious bias
Book notes: Zero interest rate policy and the new abnormal, by Michael Beenstock
Author's contention that asset purchases caused the low neutral rate of interest is entertaining and infuriating in equal measure
Book notes: Yellen, by Jon Hilsenrath
This book offers new insights into the tough decisions and tremendous efforts Yellen has made as a pre-eminent economic policy-maker
Some Latin American central banks pause tightening cycle
Paraguay second to hold rates after Brazil, as Peru and Chile signal they may do the same
Belarus’s governor predicts inflation will fall
Government imposed price controls after sanctions helped push inflation into double digits
Podcast: the effect of monetary policy on reserve management
Global rise in inflation is having an impact on central banks' reserve strategies
Norges Bank does not expect wage-price spiral, governor says
Wage moderation allows central bank to strike balance between inflation and employment
BoE’s Pill says government must ‘respect’ independence
Government and central bank have clashed over causes of UK’s gilt market turmoil
Georgieva says Argentina needs permanent fix to FX problems
IMF releases latest $3.8bn financing tranche, as market inflation forecasts reach 100%