Economics
Forward guidance loses power when rates rise, RBI research finds
Tool is useful at lower bound but is much less effective during normal conditions, paper argues
ECB paper models ‘state-dependent’ impact of capital ratios
Model simulates ratio changes’ effects on credit supply in different macro-financial conditions
Researchers use natural language processing to estimate inflation
Applying NLP techniques to earnings calls provides useful economic indicators, paper says
Inflation targeters tend to pay monetary policy staff more
Salaries tend to rise with GDP per capita but less developed economies pay larger multiples
Researchers examine Covid-19’s impact on eurozone lending
Pandemic changed banks’ lending but did not lead to widespread cut in collateral values, paper finds
ECB paper examines green regulation’s productivity impact
Tougher rules seem to hurt productivity, but might raise it over longer horizons, researchers say
Subsidies could cut net zero transition costs, BdF paper finds
Using carbon tax revenues to fund new technologies would almost halve GDP loss, researchers say
ECB paper estimates inflationary effects of climate change
Rising temperatures are having persistent effects on prices, especially for food
Robert Lucas, 1937–2023
Nobel Prize-winner became famous for “revolutionary” work on rational expectations
US household debt passes $17 trillion
Mortgage originations fall to lowest level since 2014
Book notes: The Federal Reserve: a new history, by Robert L Hetzel
This book should become the standard reference for scholars
ECB paper suggests faster methods for estimating eurozone employment
Nowcasting tools outperform models currently used by ECB, researchers say
What economists learned from Covid-19
A rush of work on ‘epi-macro’ yielded breakthroughs and then faded. Will there be lasting benefits?
BoE’s Pill: UK must accept it’s ‘worse off’
Chief economist says declining terms of trade mean purchasing power must fall
Climate change and the role for central banks
Gavin Bingham, Andrew Large and Paul Fisher explain how climate change affects central banks and the competing tensions it raises in relation to policy responses
ECB paper looks at borrower-based macro-pru limits
Households’ resilience and banks’ capital ratios improved by caps on borrowing
Weather affects eurozone inflation, ECB paper finds
Bloc’s four biggest economies respond differently to changes in temperature and variability
Boston Fed expands programme to get people back into work
FedNow created high demand for IT roles, which sparked programme’s inception
Rates round-up: Kenya raises rates to highest since 2018
Sarb adds 50bp more as economy struggles; Zimbabwe cuts 1,000bp; Mozambique holds
Banknotes: January to March 2023
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
Norway and Iceland raise rates as inflation stays high
Iceland’s governor warns of wage-price spiral and says economy is overheating
Moldova cuts rates while North Macedonia tightens
Inflation falling in both countries as Moldova confronts drought and energy problems
Lifetime achievement: Stefan Ingves
Modest man from the Finnish ‘boonies’ has had a major impact on international central banking
Central Banking Awards 2023: third group of winners announced
Awards include economic research, payments reform and risk management services