Research
Europe unlikely to see major gas shortage this winter – research
Risks remain if alternative sources of natural gas falter, says Fed economist
Canadian CBDC would not improve inclusion, paper says
Bank of Canada research finds most citizens already have access to e-payments options
BoE paper analyses banks’ forecasting accuracy
Banks with better governance, including more senior women, make better predictions, authors find
High-frequency traders impose costs on others – BIS paper
Study of dark pools finds HFTs almost never provide liquidity, while raising the cost for all
Shelter inflation set to fall significantly – SF Fed research
“Conservative” model predicts shelter inflation will be 0% in the US by summer 2024
Hedge funds may reduce liquidity in volatile periods – BoC research
By transacting abnormally in times of market stress, hedge funds can reduce liquidity
BIS paper’s guide to monitoring ‘highly leveraged’ non-banks
Using new data sources can help to shed light on an opaque sector, authors say
Inequality rising in the US – Minneapolis Fed report
“Government intervention largely eliminates the cyclicality in inequality at the bottom,” research says
AI can forecast inflation more accurately than professionals – St Louis Fed
Large language models may be powerful tools but have some drawbacks, researchers say
US credit application rejections increase sharply
Automobile loan rejections hit highest level since NY Fed began measuring in 2013
‘Supercore inflation’ is a key indicator, Fed paper argues
Non-housing core service prices behaved very differently in 2019 and 2021, researchers say
ECB paper analyses carbon pricing schemes
Rising compliance costs can push firms away from green innovation, paper finds
Forward guidance loses power when rates rise, RBI research finds
Tool is useful at lower bound but is much less effective during normal conditions, paper argues
ECB paper models ‘state-dependent’ impact of capital ratios
Model simulates ratio changes’ effects on credit supply in different macro-financial conditions
Collateral use could destabilise markets, BIS economists warn
Borio and co-authors highlight “seismic shift” in markets and call for action by policy-makers
Researchers use natural language processing to estimate inflation
Applying NLP techniques to earnings calls provides useful economic indicators, paper says
New York Fed completes global digital dollar proof of concept
Wholesale CBDC project tested 24/7 payment and settlement
Hank model sheds light on fiscal theory of the price level – paper
Adding heterogeneity allows FTPL models to reflect persistent government deficits, economists find
Crypto tax would be lucrative but challenging, IMF paper says
Authors say authorities face problems categorising and tracking cryptocurrency activity
US pandemic savings depleted by Q1 2023, says Fed research
Other advanced economies should expect pandemic-era savings to deplete within the year
Researchers examine Covid-19’s impact on eurozone lending
Pandemic changed banks’ lending but did not lead to widespread cut in collateral values, paper finds
Low rates have small effect on bank profitability – researchers
A 100bp rate cut results in 5bp fall in banks’ net interest margins on average, study shows
No significant risk of US recession – St Louis Fed research
Sahm Rule and leading economic data indicate low – but not zero – recession risk
NBER paper estimates demand for bank reserves in US
Fed needs global estimates of demand curve slope to maintain interest rate control, authors say