Economics
Greek governor wants surplus countries to recognise ‘toxic’ effect of austerity
Yannis Stournaras warns surplus countries must bear a share of the burden of adjustment in Europe or risk the rise of extreme political parties; says he is optimistic a deal is ‘not far away’
BoE paper questions dominance of Normal distribution
Using the t distribution and time-varying variance improves a vector autoregression’s fit with the data and forecasting performance, researchers find
BoE research warns failure to capture money creation distorts DSGE models
Working paper offers ‘essential ingredients’ of a DSGE model that recognises bank lending as the source of money creation, with significant implications for economic modelling
IMF paper argues technological slowdown not main driver of weak productivity
Working paper finds slower US productivity growth is more due to reduced efficiency in combining factors of production than a declining pace of technological progress
Bank of Botswana laments productivity ‘constraint’
Central bank recommends range of policies to address low productivity in Botswana, including educational reform, financial inclusion and more efficient public service provision
Bank of Finland launches second website with fresh design
Content from flagship publications will be published in a new format on a dedicated website, with a focus on the simple and clean presentation of text and graphs
Bank of Korea paper investigates link between liquidity and commodity prices
Researchers find certain commodity prices became more sensitive to global liquidity following the 2008 financial crisis
RBA’s Lowe wary of structural adjustment in global interest rates
Australian deputy governor expects rates on offer to savers to pick up when confidence grows and businesses compete for funds again, but sees potential for structural shift as well
Household expectations help flesh out inflation picture, research finds
Research published in the latest Bank of Canada review argues that looking at the behaviour of expectations since the crisis helps in understanding evolution of inflation
Greece talks more positive but time running out, says Varoufakis
Finance minister says Greece and its creditors are increasingly seeing eye-to-eye, but a deal is needed in the next ‘couple of weeks’; country manages to scrape together IMF repayment
St. Louis Fed paper considers impact of trade shocks on labour market
Working paper examines effects of trade shocks on labour markets, finding the increase in import competition from China after 2000 actually boosted aggregate US welfare
European Commission looks to unshackle big data
In its quest to create a digital single market the commission plans to tackle restrictions on the free movement of data; champions transition to ‘open science’
IMF paper studies interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries
Economic size, inflation, the quality of bank balance sheets and banking sector concentration influence interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries, finds working paper
Chilean paper analyses ‘labour wedge’ cycles
The gap between the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) and the marginal productivity of labour (MPL) increases during recessions and is counter-cyclical in Chile, finds research
IMF paper analyses Islamic banking impact on economic growth
Islamic banking is ‘more flexible against shocks and more inclusive with regards to growth’, finds an IMF working paper
IMF paper lays out new capital controls dataset
IMF working paper presents new dataset of capital control restrictions on both inflows and outflows of 10 categories of assets for 100 countries between 1995 and 2013
Draghi says ECB may have to reassess Greek emergency liquidity
ECB president says situation in Greece may force governing council to revisit the terms of emergency liquidity, as another round of negotiations breaks down
Zeti highlights ‘v-shaped’ recoveries in Malaysia
Bank Negara Malaysia’s governor argues the economy has ‘time and time again’ demonstrated the ability to emerge from commodity price shocks and financial crises
Prasarn highlights ‘untapped opportunities’ between Thailand and China
Bank of Thailand governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul insists China is still an ‘important engine in support of the growth of the Thai export sector’
Stronger dollar will pose challenges for South African economy, says Mminele
"Rising interest rates in the US would have an adverse impact on borrowing costs, while a weaker euro would limit external demand for South African exports,” says Sarb deputy governor
‘Unbanked’ numbers fall 20%, World Bank study finds
First update to the Global Findex database finds 700 million adults worldwide became new account holders since 2011, but two billion remain without access to basic financial services
Portuguese paper analyses crisis impact on union agreements
Bank of Portugal working paper evaluates changes in union agreements since the crisis, finding they have reduced due to ‘downward nominal wage rigidity in deflationary times’
IMF projections may be ‘too pro-cyclical’ warns Vergara
Central Bank of Chile president questions whether a drop in productivity has occurred recently, suggesting potential growth was actually ‘lower than previously thought all along’
Research department split at Central Bank of Malta
Annual report reveals separation of economic forecasts and quantitative research into separate departments, as governor looks to boost capacity