Economics
Book notes: Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters, by Walter Friedman
A fascinating book that crosses the traditional boundaries between the history of economic thought and cultural history
BoE’s Forbes says financial ‘deglobalisation’ has upside
Kristin Forbes highlights ‘massive contraction’ in global bank flows as main factor reversing financial globalisation, resulting in both positive and negative effects on the UK economy
Banxico deputy says stagnant TFP 'by far' economy's biggest problem
While TFP in China has increased dramatically since the 1980s, in Mexico it has remained ‘basically flat', notes Manuel Sanchez
BoE to challenge orthodoxy with research ‘revolution’
More combative approach to Bank of England’s research will see economists challenge orthodoxy – including the central bank’s own policies – as often as they support it, says Andrew Haldane
Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect to go live next week
Securities regulators unveil final launch date after delays upset markets last month; scheme will allow direct trading of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks within certain limits
BoJ paper finds US crisis policy more impactful on markets than European measures
Authors test policy responses to the global financial crisis including monetary, liquidity and financial sector policies, finding US announcements led to higher abnormal returns
Malaysian deputy says Islamic banking has inclusion role to play
Muhammad bin Ibrahim highlights potential of Islamic banking products to improve financial inclusion, by channelling funds directly to small businesses
Caruana sees role for BIS in ‘digital financial inclusion’
Standard-setting bodies need to work together to maximise benefits of new technology, and the BIS provides an excellent forum, Caruana says; RBI board member offers lessons from India
Models with time-varying parameters improve GDP forecasting, finds Croatian working paper
Research finds that Bayesian models are better at predicting short-term GDP fluctuations in Croatia than naive benchmark models
Yellen: Economics profession can benefit from more diversity
Janet Yellen argues economies ‘develop and become more stable through diversification’, noting the failure of economists brought a public debate about the health of the profession
‘Fiscal devaluation’ not enough to solve competitiveness problems, IMF paper finds
Research finds rearranging taxes to shift the burden overseas has a muted effect on output, but may be useful as part of a broader package of structural reforms
Buba research links output volatility and capital flows
Discussion paper finds countries with more volatile growth rates face greater procyclicality of capital outflows, which may be a result of precautionary saving
Ex-HKMA chief: China may punish Hong Kong for protests
Joseph Yam warns Hong Kong might be sidelined as a financial centre if protests continue, as Occupy Central movement enters its second month on the streets of Hong Kong
Zeti: Sukuk market has potential to fund infrastructure projects
Bank Negara Malaysia governor argues infrastructure projects need broader funding with sukuk markets an ‘important new source’
Productivity gains in the banking industry affect interest rates, study finds
More productive banks set lower interest rates on loans and higher rates on deposits, increasing their market share, according to a study by the Bank of Spain
RBA paper aims to reduce noise in GDP calculation
Researchers combine three measures of Australian GDP to produce a measure they say is less volatile and easier to calculate
Singular spectrum analysis helpful when assessing output gaps, study finds
Bank of Portugal paper analyses the ‘added value of singular spectrum analysis-based nowcasts in a real-life, policy-making scenario’
Banque de France and HKMA ink renminbi deal
Central banks seek closer ties to help develop renminbi business in Hong Kong and Paris; Christian Noyer hails the two cities as ‘among the most important’ for offshore renminbi trade
Trade balance improves after fiscal devaluation, study finds
European economists analyse the effects of a temporary fiscal devaluation in Spain and Portugal, finding it leads to improved trade balance
RBA’s Lowe wants more market appetite for ‘real investments’
Deputy governor says key to returning growth and monetary policy to normality is persuading investors to create new assets rather than pumping up the prices of existing ones
Spanish economists adapt model on business cycle conditions to forecast growth
Working paper published by the Bank of Spain extends an existing model on US business cycle conditions to forecast GDP growth in real time
Zhou backs Chinese growth target in face of slowdown
PBoC governor says Chinese economy is on track to hit growth target of 7.5% in 2014, despite drag from the housing market; central bank deploys measures to boost real estate sector
BIS paper proposes defence against market panics
Proposal would see governments link level of borrowing to interest rates, breaking the vicious cycle of rising rates leading to increased default risk
RBA’s Ellis urges policy-makers to look beyond economics
Head of financial stability says there is ‘a lot’ to learn from other research fields, even if some techniques ‘end up being dead ends for our purposes’