Economics
Slovenian paper examines government spending in a monetary union
Government consumption expenditure can have’ strong effects’ on private consumption and output in a small and open economy within a monetary union, research finds
World Bank research sees value in ‘acyclical’ remittances
Remittance flows show little correlation with the business cycle and therefore can play an important role in allowing consumption smoothing
Government spend no more effective at ZLB – NBER paper
US government spending did not become more powerful when monetary policy hit a zero lower bound, according to a working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research
Belgian paper examines impact of unit labour costs on exports
Working paper results imply a 10% increase in unit labour costs leads to drop in exports of between 2% and 4%, based on data from 1999 to 2010
Chilean paper analyses recent trends in long-term interest rates
Whether interest rate normalisation will be a smooth process ‘remains to be seen’ as recent developments in fixed-income markets ‘warns of enhanced risks’, research finds
Credible fiscal plans reduce pressure on sovereign bond market, study finds
A credible macro-fiscal framework ‘can lead to stable expectations’ around a country’s sovereign bond market, reducing its expected risk premium, ECB paper finds
Signs of reflation in Japan as Abe sweeps back to power
Tankan survey shows degree of optimism among businesses and potential for rising wages in coming months, although evidence is mixed; Shinzo Abe reclaims supermajority in election
SBP annual report highlights ‘two phase’ year
Pakistan’s economy suffered turbulent spell in 2013, but IMF agreement saw a return to relative stability; central bank praises government for ‘long-awaited’ return to fiscal discipline
External imbalances predict exchange rate returns, finds SNB paper
Deviations from trends in Swiss net foreign assets and net exports indicated how nominal exchange rate will move in the future, according to a Swiss National Bank working paper
RBI's Rajan looks to regional and domestic demand
RBI governor argues India must look to regional and domestic demand for its growth, while still working towards a ‘more open and fair global system’
Impact of flight to liquidity on bonds important for policy-makers, study finds
The effects of flight to liquidity episodes on bond markets ‘are important for policy-makers’, since they are associated with ‘lower macroeconomic confidence’, research finds
Cluster effect helps explain size of UK banking sector, BoE bulletin finds
Firms and people locating near one another means banks may be able to provide services more efficiently in the UK than other countries, researchers say
Central banks in SE Europe publish 19th century data
Institutions in Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Serbia and Turkey team up to shed light on ‘statistical dark ages’ going back to the Ottoman Empire in 1830
SNB working paper examines drivers of Swiss franc real exchange rate
Research finds terms of trade and relative government are ‘the most significant explanatory variables’, while Balassa-Samuelson effects are unimportant
BoJ launches ‘plain language’ economics journal
‘Research Lab’ journal aims to convey Bank of Japan’s research in a ‘concise and plain’ fashion, with the publication tailored for mobile phone and tablet users
ECB paper uses financial conditions indices to help predict growth developments
Working paper presents indices for three industrialised and five emerging economies; authors say they are a potential leading indicator for eurozone external environment
Richmond Fed economist sees obstacles to Islamic finance in the US
Islamic finance in the US suffers from poor liquidity and problems meshing with the regulatory environment, researcher says
Lower liquidity has impeded Swedish markets, central bank survey shows
The Swedish markets are functioning 'slightly less well' than six months ago and will deteriorate further, a risk survey conducted by Sveriges Riksbank finds
Bank of Korea governor sees imbalances worsening
Juyeol Lee warns a ‘fundamental rebalancing’ may be the only way to achieve longer-term growth; external imbalances may also deteriorate
Oil price forecast errors impact wider inflation estimates, Banque de France study finds
When there is ‘large’ volatility in oil prices, the pass-through of forecast errors to inflation estimates increases, research finds
Flug warns Israel is falling behind in productivity race
Bank of Israel governor sees country slipping behind its OECD peers and suggests policy changes to boost productivity growth
Thomas Jordan dismisses monetary reform proposals
Swiss National Bank head rejects multiple reforms, including a return to the gold standard, the introduction of plain money and the adoption of the euro
Maldives governor says international experts ‘unaware’ of island realities
Azeema Adam argues policy advice from international institutions is misguided, and rejects the use of one-size-fits-all policy prescriptions
Book notes: Finding Equilibrium, by Till Düppe & Roy Weintraub
This unusual book describes the early progress in the mathematisation of economics and, in particular, micro-economic model building