Macroeconomics
‘Bullwhip effects’ worsening supply problems – BIS bulletin
Direct inflationary impact likely to be limited, but “sustained pressures” are possible, economists say
US records highest CPI inflation rise since 1990
NY Fed detects slight rise in short-term consumer inflation expectations as real wages fall
New York Fed opens new research centre
Marco Del Negro will lead work on research methods and issues in macroeconomics
US adds more than half a million jobs in October
Unemployment falls to 4.6% as labour market perks up again
Bank of Israel calls on divided parliament to pass budget
Central bank stresses it includes key investments to boost productivity and growth
Biden stimulus will cause small, short price spike, says paper
San Francisco Fed predicts American Rescue Plan will boost inflation by 0.3%
Delta variant had smaller impact on US consumer spending
Cleveland Fed finds weaker or no link between hospitalisation and spending in 2021
PBoC suffers headaches from growth, energy and Evergrande
Yi Gang mulls property sector risks, as China’s growth hits one-year low
US CPI inflation rises to 5.4%
Prices continue upward climb, but policy-makers still see pressures as temporary
Evergrande tests China’s commitment to deleveraging
Chinese officials are having to choose between near-term growth and long-term economic health
US PCE inflation rises to 4.3%
Fed’s preferred rate reaches new high in August, but “trimmed” measure steady at 2%
Goodhart, Gopinath and Lippi disagree on inflation
Central banks lack tools to deal with inflation, Goodhart warns, but IMF chief economist disagrees
BoE paper links debt and labour supply
Households behave differently depending on their wealth and debt, paper finds
Foreign vulnerabilities can affect domestic growth – BoE paper
Study of ‘GDP-at-risk’ shows financial factors overseas can lead to worse outcomes locally
MMT and the challenge of fiscal monetary co-ordination
Sayuri Shirai contrasts modern monetary theory with regimes of monetary or fiscal dominance
No IMF bias towards ‘excessive austerity’, report finds
But Independent Evaluation Office says fund has been too optimistic in its forecasts
Demand shocks can have permanent impact on US economy – Fed paper
Authors find hysteresis is an important driver of longer-term growth trend in US
Bank Indonesia tells banks to provide financing to SMEs
As much as 30% of banks’ loan books will need to be directed to small businesses
PBoC to provide 300 billion yuan to SMEs
State Council calls on central bank to step in as Delta variant shows signs of denting growth
Canada records surprise GDP decline
Second-quarter figures show 0.3% contraction, which may affect taper and monetary policy
Chilean governor opposes new pension withdrawals
Congress considering authorising fourth drawdown as stimulus measure
Canada records highest inflation since 2011
House prices help drive figures up, as inflation becomes campaign issue in election season
Bank of Thailand calls for additional $30 billion borrowing
Debt totalled 54% of GDP by June, putting pressure on the 60% ceiling
Global economy faces ‘decisive moment’ – IMF’s Gaspar and Gopinath
Policy-makers have “window of opportunity” to help those falling behind in Covid-19 recovery