Macroeconomics
BoE’s Vlieghe: central bankers must speak up about economic fragility
Outgoing MPC member says impact of debt and inequality is “stark”, but goes beyond central banking
Inflation fears are ‘overstated’ – BIS research
‘Little evidence’ of the forces that normally lead to persistent inflation, bulletin article says
Unemployment has non-linear relationship to inflation – Fed paper
Authors say their findings could be relevant to debates over inflation targets
BdF paper analyses inflation tolerance ranges
Ranges “should not be zones of inaction” and may have unfavourable trade-offs, researchers say
IMF agrees with Fed on ‘transitory’ inflation
Georgieva says recent inflation spike likely to pass; supports Biden’s fiscal plans
US unemployment rate stable at 5.9%
Little sign of ‘substantial further progress’ FOMC wants to see before taper
BIS annual report: ‘disaster averted’ but world ‘not out of the woods’
Report weighs up three scenarios for “pandexit”, none of them without drawbacks
UK household debt has not yet amplified Covid shock – BoE paper
But the share of households reporting financial difficulties is now rising, authors note
Shadow banking changes macro-prudential trade-offs – BdF paper
Presence of non-banks increases importance of dynamic capital ratios, researcher argues
‘Fiscal distress’ can reverse exchange rate dynamics – BIS paper
Authors emphasise “contingent nature” of exchange rate response to shocks
Inflation expectations rising – NY Fed survey
Survey finds consumers predicting higher prices, but also better labour market conditions
US CPI inflation reaches 5%
Figures follow predictions of “transitory” inflation rises by senior Fed officials
Global recovery is ‘double edged’ for EMEs – Carstens
“Too soon” to say whether inflation will be sustained but markets may overreact, says BIS chief
‘Run it hot’: the risks and rewards of a new policy era
Covid-19 has added impetus to an emerging intellectual shift in policy-making. But central banks face unresolved issues – on expectations, on fiscal policy, and on the capacity of the economy to ‘run hot’
Inequality can worsen recessions – BIS paper
But authors say there is little evidence that income inequality affects consumption in normal times
IMF proposes $50bn plan to ‘end the Covid-19 pandemic’
“Upfront” financing is needed to accelerate vaccinations, say Georgieva, Gopinath and Agarwal
BoE paper highlights link between mortgage limits and consumption
Authors find “new link” between down payment requirements and household consumption
MMT rests on ‘untested statements’ – Richmond Fed paper
Authors warn that modern monetary theory rests on shaky foundations
SF Fed president says inequality could have cost US $2.6 trillion in 2019
Research paper argues opportunity and pay could increase labour output 40% by 2029
IMF adjusts growth forecasts upward
Fund warns of uneven and unequal recovery, but is more optimistic than it was in October
Unemployment set to rise to 8% in 2022 – Irish central bank
Bottlenecks in the jobs market may delay employment’s return to pre-pandemic levels
BoE’s Tenreyro highlights divergence in UK and US policies
US focused on protecting incomes, while UK protected jobs, MPC member notes
Barkin concerned over pandemic ‘scarring’
Richmond Fed chief says disruptions imperil access to jobs and economic growth
Expectations play key role in policy transmission – BoE paper
Authors use high-frequency data to assess importance of term premia and expectations