Emerging markets
IMF raises red flags for global growth
Fund warns of global fragmentation as it cuts growth forecast and predicts higher inflation
Book notes: Shutdown, by Adam Tooze
A useful, wide-ranging overview, showing how health and economic policies are intimately intertwined with geopolitics
MAS’s Tharman urges investor action on global instability
War, stagflation risk, climate crisis, pandemic and uneven growth create “perfect long storm”
Digital money and central banks
Central banks must reflect on the monetary policy, regulatory and financial stability implications from crypto assets, stablecoins and CBDCs to stay relevant in the digital age of money
Rethinking sovereign risk
‘Risk-free’ assets now include the possibility of complete confiscation with no recourse
Emerging economies ‘remarkably’ resilient to Fed tightening, BIS says
Many EME currencies have appreciated, but Turkish lira and Russian ruble are notable exceptions
Namibia marks first rate hike in six years
Central bank acts to “safeguard” link to South African rand
Brazil’s Campos Neto: markets show less fear of Lula win
Presidential candidate reported to have embraced central bank independence
US Treasury opposes ending IMF surcharges
Biden administration rejects initiative championed by Democratic progressives
Emerging market stock returns impacted by dollar – BIS paper
US dollar can drive local financial conditions in equities as well as other markets, authors say
Picking up the pieces: how to tackle the next phase of the Covid crisis
The global economy is heading into dangerous territory, writes Jagjit Chadha. Central banks must honour their commitments to price stability
Fed keeps investors guessing on speed and endpoint of tightening
Investors generally agree the Fed will tighten policy, but how much and when are unclear
Minority of central banks define project risk appetite
Institutional risk and delegated risk appetites defined more often
Minority of central banks use GRC platforms
RSA Archer and SAP named as providers
Reputational risk tops central bank concerns
Cyber security and credit/counterparty risk followed
Economics Benchmarks 2021 report – executive summary
Covid-19 coloured central banks’ views on the governance of their economics function in the past year, from research topics to forecasting, data, publications and more
2021: The year in review
The year has seen central banks switch from recovery mode to battling inflation. Central Banking looks back at the stories that made the biggest impact in 2021
IMF finds Argentina bailout ‘did not deliver on its objectives’
Largest-ever IMF loan was ineffective and “not sufficiently robust”
Central bank social media trends in the ‘Instagram age’
Uptake of visual social media platforms rises, as Facebook usage plateaus
Advanced economies draw on wider range of models
DSGE models and newer techniques more common at advanced economy central banks
Quarterly forecast updates predominate
Frequency of forecasts varies more widely in emerging markets
Brazilian MPC tightens rates again despite sluggish growth
MPC “foresees another adjustment of the same magnitude” at next meeting
Pandemic spurred use of alternative data
Advanced and emerging market economies prioritise different applications
Unemployment forecast by minority of emerging market economy nations
Data highlights differences based on local economic circumstances