Economics Benchmarks 2023 report – tentative steps on AI
The benchmarks show some small steps to increase AI use, and shed light on broader reforms to modelling, governance and more
View a printable version of this report in PDF format
Central bank economics departments continue to face enormous challenges. The immediate shocks from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have passed, but central banks must now navigate the turbulent aftermath. As economies begin to return to a semblance of normality, uncertainty remains high.
Benchmarking data shows inflation forecast errors have fallen, after forecasts went off target during the 2022 spike in inflation. Indeed
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More on Economics
Two-thirds of central banks forecast policy rate in main models
But relatively few make their rate forecasts public
Economists’ median salary falls below $30,000 a year
Annual budget of economics departments averages under $1 million
Policy economists outnumber research colleagues
Economics FTE staff make up 4% of central banks’ overall employees, on average
Economics teams tend to be tailored by institution
But hub and spoke model is prevalent among high income respondents
Economics Benchmarks 2023 – model banks analysis
Data reveals differences in research, forecasting and data use across central banks
Central banks adapt forecasts with financial sector and other changes
Host of changes to modelling incorporate financial channels, nuanced expectations and more
Inflation forecast errors moderate after surge in 2022
But growth forecast errors are higher in 2023, data shows
High income central banks allocate most time to research
Research economists are more numerous and are allotted more research time in high income jurisdictions