Macroeconomics
Forbearance does not always lead to ‘zombification’ – BoE paper
Well-designed policies can support firms through temporary periods of stress, researchers find
Italian lenders do not under-report default risks – central bank
Commercial lenders’ internal rating-based systems “less conservative” than central bank’s
OECD highlights ‘resilient’ economies beset by risks
Geopolitics, high public debt and possible repricing in private credit markets threaten outlook
South European states benefited most from NGEU – ECB
Recovery and resilience facility’s structural reforms expected to pay off in the long run
NBER paper offers ‘unified theory’ of liquidity traps
Researchers ask whether major economies are doomed to return to zero lower bound
No systemic link between dollar and oil price yet – ECB paper
Increasing value of crude no longer weakens greenback, but does not “significantly” lift currency
Governors weigh macroeconomic risks at G30 event
Officials from Netherlands, South Africa, BIS and more consider debt, inflation and climate change
Differences in eurozone states ‘support disinflation narrative’
BdF deputy governor confident inflation will keep falling based on wage developments
‘Pooling’ models generates better output gap estimates – paper
Economists say measuring gap in real time is particularly challenging in developing countries
Trade credit can expose firms to FX risk – BIS paper
Currency borrowers partially insulate their partners from shocks, but still pass them along supply chains
Hélène Rey on cracking the code to the global financial cycle
The dollar and financial cycle move together. For the first time, economists think they know why
Close ‘huge’ gender gap to boost GDP – North Macedonia governor
Head of central bank says supporting female entrepreneurs could add $5trn-6trn to global economy
Shared EU debt not ‘essential’ for competitiveness boost – Draghi
Former ECB chief also says his proposal for €750bn of extra annual investment is “conservative”
NBER paper reviews ‘state of the art’ climate modelling
Recent breakthroughs have increased accuracy and computational efficiency of IAMs
Central banks should examine demographics – Finnish governor
Rehn says sharp decrease in hours worked and increased immigration may not continue
Households biased in views of purchasing power – BdF deputy
Bénassy-Quéré says too much emphasis placed on food and energy prices’ effects on inflation
China poses ‘risk of economic coercion’ – Belgian paper
National Bank of Belgium says trade with EU has shifted to more “strategic” goods
Draghi report calls for step change in EU investment
Former ECB chief says bloc should revive securitisation and finish capital markets union to stay competitive
Hungary has been ‘off course’ since 2021 – MNB governor
Matolcsy tears into government’s economic policy
Lower-paid workers face greatest impact from AI – BIS paper
Risk of core skills being replaced, and jobs being lost, is higher for people on low incomes
Mortgage reforms, surprise rate hikes harm renters – ECB study
Researchers say young people could lose equivalent of 1% of their lifetime consumption