Macroeconomics
Global crisis uncertainty harmed investment – BoE paper
Authors say their results offer a benchmark for possible Brexit-related uncertainty
IMF authors dismiss global Phillips curve as euro inflation driver
Domestic factors largely behind “remarkably stable” inflation in eurozone
Jackson Hole: policy-makers come to defence of disruption
Poloz and Carstens highlight benefits of technological and trade disruption; monetary policy can cope with the uncertainty, Bank of Canada governor says
Haldane: market power puzzle is important for policy
Micro and macro evidence “not easily reconciled”, says BoE chief economist, but market power could have major impact on inflation
West Bank weakness drives economic slowdown in Palestine
Palestine Monetary Authority notes “significant drop” in West Bank conditions index
Turkish lira down 22% as crisis builds
Lira collapses and bond yields soar as Donald Trump unveils fresh sanctions
US could lose a third of growth to climate change – Richmond Fed article
Authors warn economic damage could be much more widespread than typically assumed
Zimbabwean economy faces uncertainty after controversial election result
Violence and accusations of unfairness around the presidential election have dampened hopes of economic recovery
Equities pushing US wealth inequality - Minneapolis Fed paper
Wealth inequality boosted by record-high stocks and slower growth in house prices, paper finds
BIS paper links Japan’s household debt to consumption behaviour
The researcher examines how Japanese household debt affects marginal propensity to consume
Researcher models business cycle using ‘animal spirits’
San Francisco Fed paper incorporates ‘equity sentiment shock’ into model
Labour reallocation explains productivity puzzle – BoE paper
Methodological innovation helps solve data-quality issues, author says
Forecasting yield curve inversion is hard – Cleveland Fed research
Inversions may be a “harbinger of recession” but seeing them coming is difficult, says economist
NY Fed paper: ‘replacement hiring’ affects productivity wage gap
Replacement hiring can explain much of the gap between wages and productivity, authors say
Money matters for macro fluctuations – Fed paper
Working paper says previous research by Schularick and Taylor may have been flawed
Leading governors analyse evolving inflation-employment relationship
Powell, Draghi, Lowe and Kuroda assess causes keeping wage growth low across the world
Woodford shows finite horizons matter when modelling
Removing rational expectations can change key economic results, says Michael Woodford
Andy Haldane rethinks traditional growth narrative
New research implies growth did not “flatline” before the industrial revolution
Brainard says yield curve inversion may not presage recession
Flatter yield curve “may temper somewhat” fears of a coming recession, says governor
Housing inequality creates credit inequality – NY Fed’s Hirtle
Older people with less need of credit have seen the value of their collateral rise more
RBA paper finds elusive interest rate-investment link
Authors present empirical evidence for inverse relationship between rates and investment
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Swedish paper examines effects of business cycles on employment
Volatile business cycles cut the number of new jobs and employment, Riksbank paper says; analysis uses labour market search model to track effects
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues