Bank of Israel research derives growth estimate from survey data
Researchers construct real-time indicator that can be produced earlier than nowcasts
Israeli researchers have developed a new means of estimating GDP growth using information contained within surveys of sentiment among firms.
Tanya Suhoy of the Bank of Israel and Daniel Roash from the Israeli statistics authority find a link between sentiment contained in answers to the Business Tendency Survey and GDP growth.
In their paper, the researchers propose a “sentiment index” based on a partial least squares regression. This allows them to focus on variables drawn from the survey
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