CEPR advocates rule-based approach to central bank projections
Central bank projections based on a simple rule for short-term interest rates produce clearer forecasts than ones based on market conditions, a Centre for Economic Policy Research paper published in September says.
Central banks' projections - forecasts conditional on a given interest rate path - are often criticised on the grounds that their underlying policy assumptions are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in many forward-looking models. Jordi Galí, the author, analyses
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