Currency crisis in emerging markets - predictable?

RESEARCH PAPER - Brazil and Argentina are among the countries most vulnerable to a currency crisis, according to a new model developed by a Dutch central bank economist which had been flashing warning signals about Turkey back in December 2000.

The model, developed by Peter Vlaar, an economist in the bank's research department, focuses on the severity, rather than the timing, of possible crises. It showed Argentina, Indonesia, and the Slovak Republic deepest into the danger zone. According to the

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