NY Fed chief unveils real-time reserves calculation framework

John Williams and fellow researchers cite five measures of reserves’ ampleness or scarcity

John Williams
John Williams
Shell Jiang

Real-time calculations based on a central bank’s balance sheet can provide early-warning signs of reserves transitioning from abundant to ample to scarce, argues the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

In a blogpost published on August 13 and co-authored by Gara Afonso, Domenico Giannone and Gabriele La Spada, John Williams says that calculating a transition from abundant to ample is difficult because banks’ demand for reserves changes over time.

The authors calculate the slope of

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