Most conversations during the past three months or so have at some point turned to ‘if’ (there are some doubters), ‘when’, ‘by how much’ and ‘over what time period’ the Federal Reserve will raise its policy interest rate. There is a wide range of views on the subject among central bankers and a clear disconnect has emerged between forward predictions set out by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and market expectations implied by interest rate futures.

While many FOMC members