US growth trend could fall for the next 10 years, SF Fed paper warns

Productivity slowdown in construction has contributed 30% of slowdown since 1950s, researchers find

US index

The US growth trend could continue to decline for the next 10 years if there is no persistent increase in total factor productivity (TFP), researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimate.

Andrew Foerster and co-authors estimate trends in TFP and working-age population growth across major US production sectors to explore the impact each sector has had on the long-term decline in US growth since the 1950s – a drop from 4% to 1.7%.

Using a process of “capital accumulation”

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