Most central banks may be seeing the macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic fade, but it has still been a year of massive shocks that again knocked forecasts off course. When Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February, they set off a seismic shift that may have permanently reconfigured commodities markets. Surging inflation, partly driven by energy and food price rises, has left many central banks on the back foot. Meanwhile, in some economies, labour markets are behaving strangely