Economics
IMF sees southern European free-fall begin to slow
Mission chief for Greece says painful adjustment proceeding ‘apace’, although questions raised over potential €9.5 billion funding gap; Fund praises ‘impressive policy effort’ in Portugal
Fed’s latest Beige Book finds post-hurricane rebound
States that bore the brunt of Hurricane Sandy report improved conditions in all but the hardest-hit areas, as ‘modest or moderate’ growth continues; unemployment remains stubborn, however
IMF paper compares sub-Saharan bond markets
Research finds a ‘steadily growing’ corporate bond market would benefit from further financial development in African countries
Sri Lankan central bank sounds positive note for 2013
Monetary policy review forecasts moderation in inflation and robust economic growth; committee votes to hold repo rate at 7.5% and reverse repo at 9.5%
PBoC statistics show rapid increase in renminbi trade
Efforts made by the People’s Bank of China to promote renminbi internationalisation start to pay off, as cross-border trade in local currency increases 41% in 2012
Irish deputy governor says economy has ‘little safety margin’
Stefan Gerlach says while growth may show a modest recovery this year, even a small shock to market confidence could complicate an exit from the IMF programme
IMF paper analyses ‘prolonged decline’ in Asian investment
Paper finds investment is suffering from the financial constraints facing non-tradable sector; proposes widening forms of credit available to small and medium-sized enterprises
Bank of Korea foresees long road to recovery
Economic outlook report predicts sluggish narrowing of Korea’s negative output gap; central bank keeps rates on hold
Bank of Zambia mounts charge on financial education
Central bank hopes to create financially educated population by 2030 and provide Zambians with tools to secure ‘positive financial outcomes’ for their families
Portugal's Costa demands greater European co-ordination
Bank of Portugal governor says individual countries’ adjustment programmes alone are not enough to boost Europe’s growth potential
Bhutan governor gives banking sector assurances
Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan 2011–12 annual report reveals ongoing liquidity crisis; inflation increases to 13.5%
Signal-extraction analysed by Latvian paper
Study considers ability of a regularised filter to extract signals from large data-sets
Belgian bank survey reports gloomier outlook
National Bank of Belgium survey finds improved financial market conditions are not feeding into the real economy, as respondents again revise down 2013 growth forecasts
Swiss paper considers how GDP is best forecast
Study says forecasting the individual components of GDP does not produce results worthy of the additional effort
Currency mismatches hit corporates hard during crisis, says Hungarian paper
Prior to the crisis of 2007, companies with large foreign exchange liabilities and no hedge comprised 7% of the corporate sector but held 66% of the loans; had lower survival rates and profits as a result
BoE paper tackles issue of cross-dependence in panel data models
Research published by the Bank of England uses a Bayesian approach to short dynamic panel data estimation; attempts to capture ‘cross-sectional dependence’
Peruvian paper seeks to fill data void between quarterly releases
Research published by Central Bank of Peru says monthly macroeconomic variables provide information that can be harnessed to predict quarterly aggregates
Boston Fed paper lauds survey data over rational assumptions for macro models
Research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston finds the performance of DSGE models is enhanced by introducing survey data on inflation, unemployment and interest rates
IMF fears Ireland could still lose access to markets
Eighth review of extended fund facility says Ireland’s newly regained market access is ‘fragile’ and could be lost if European commitments to ESM funding and OMTs are not followed through
NY Fed research links exchange rate pass-through and mark-ups
NY Fed paper finds evidence that exchange rate movements are associated with movements in mark-ups on goods
Liikanen urges government to strengthen public finances
Bank of Finland governor says public debt reduction is threatened by lower-than-expected economic growth
National Bank of Denmark chief says country should sign up to ‘more Europe’
Nils Bernstein warns that Denmark needs to maintain close integration with Europe or the country may find itself in a weaker position
Book notes: Masters of the Universe: Hayek, Friedman, and the Birth of Neoliberal Politics
At first glance the cover of this book implies that the overweening attachment of Thatcher and Reagan to free market economics lay at the root of the 2007–08 crisis. But it is not as simple as that
Book notes: First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America's Prosperity
The author's premise is that the best way to understand the problems confronting the American economy is to go back to the first principles of economic freedom upon which the country was founded