Economics
Borio-led BIS team proposes new approach to measure output gap
Trying to calculate the output gap using the Phillips curve is problematic, say Basel-based economists; new approach finds financial cycle proxies add ‘significant information' to the estimate
ECB paper employs survey data to improve yield curve forecasts
Researchers find that survey expectations can be used to help model ‘dynamic behaviour’ of interest rate term structure
NY Fed research head calls for data innovation
James McAndrews encourages an audience of central bankers to find novel uses for existing data sets as well as collecting new ones
Aid ‘surges' benefit countries where currency or inflation is allowed to rise
If large inflows of aid are ‘sterilised' in an attempt to curb inflation or maintain a set exchange rate, the economy will not feel the benefit of aid, a new IMF paper finds
Global lending conditions more connected than ever, says BIS's Turner
Big emerging market corporations are borrowing abroad, while global capital has been flowing into EMs – meaning lending conditions are more strongly connected than before
ECB working paper unpicks household demand for mortgage types
Paper comes to predicted conclusion that greater income volatility reduces demand for variable-rate mortgages; authors also reckon borrowers on variable rates benefited from lower rates
Restrictions on capital outflows more effective when supported by strong fundamentals and institutions
IMF working paper finds tightening of restrictions fails to reduce net outflows when macroeconomic fundamentals, good institutions, or comprehensive existing restrictions are lacking
IMF board laments US-induced impasse on quota reform
Executive board asks the IMF board of governors to adopt resolution calling for ratification of reform package that would double quotas and overhaul fund's governance ‘without further delay'
Colombian paper examines women in the workplace
Researchers say the large increase in the number of urban women participating in the workforce is predominantly a result of married women with low education levels getting jobs
BoE's McCafferty says 'lagging' investment recovery ready to start
Worries over a lack in business investment growth are misplaced, according to MPC member Ian McCafferty, who says it is normal for it to lag growth in other sectors
Prices transmit information from the informed to the uniformed, say researchers
Bank of Italy working paper examines how the price system affects companies’ demand for information on the macroeconomy; contributes to business cycle theory
Central banks found research prize in honour of Carl Menger
Deutsche Bundesbank, National Bank of Austria and Swiss National Bank announce the creation of a new prize for economic research, named after Austrian economist Carl Menger
Household borrowing not caused by income inequality, Richmond Fed paper argues
Finds low-income households in high-inequality regions accumulated less debt relative to income than their counterparts in lower-inequality regions; rebuts 'wish to keep up' as driver of credit demand
BoE's Broadbent examines UK economic growth conundrum
MPC external member says real wages have fallen due to specific economic 'headwinds', which are now beginning to abate; productivity is also on the rise, he says
Knot backs advanced economies to buck secular stagnation
Netherlands Bank president Klaas Knot says a period of technological change will stop advanced economies from sliding into a new era defined by lower growth rates
ECB bulletin examines 'virtuous circle' in Chinese reforms
Research article published by the European Central Bank says there could be a ‘virtuous circle’ between reforms aimed at rebalancing China’s growth and those aimed at promoting the renminbi
Inclusion of 'spatial effects' help explain Colombian money market spreads, central bank paper argues
Traditional factors like 'size and leverage' insufficient to explain borrowing spreads, argues paper, which is 'first attempt' to model Colombian money market within a spatial econometrics framework
Emerging Asia must reform to keep growing, says IMF research
China and India have recently exhibited a decline in total factor production growth; demographic factors will be more supportive in India and some Asean economies than in China
Real exchange rates determined by 'cointegrated' factors, Bofit paper finds
Evidence suggests sectoral total factor productivity differentials, real interest rate differentials and real gold prices explain movements in bilateral US real exchange rates between 1970-2006
Bank of Albania paper trials CAB approach to estimate fiscal position
Bank of Albania economist applies cyclically-adjusted budget balance approach to estimate country's fiscal position, finding fiscal policy to be pro-cyclical
Israeli paper finds ‘prolonged decline’ in Nairu
Researchers at the Bank of Israel utilise the Phillips and Beveridge curves to estimate the country’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment between 1998 and 2012
Banque de France paper explains new GDP forecast model
New model aims to eliminate 'systematic upward predictive bias' since the crisis
IMF paper models sovereign restructuring in monetary union
Paper prepared by economists in IMF's fiscal affairs department shows the restructuring country's economy would suffer more if its residents hold most of its sovereign debt
Asian decoupling a figment of the great moderation, says BIS paper
Evidence of Asia's economic decoupling from the rest of the world was a symptom of low co-movement during tranquil economic times, which ended with the arrival of the financial crisis